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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 72

Washington Commanders 11 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 33-M.Hyde to GB 40 for 17 yards (54-M.Foster).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP