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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 24

Washington Commanders 11 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed to GB 7 for 17 yards (48-J.Thomas; 42-M.Burnett).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model