Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to GB 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 33-M.Hyde to GB 17 for 12 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on GB-39-D.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at GB 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.70 EP
56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model