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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 32 – Washington Commanders 18

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 8-T.Masthay punts 55 yards to WAS 9, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP