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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 4

Washington Commanders 18 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at GB 20 for -16 yards (96-M.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model