4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 24

Washington Commanders 18 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson to GB 13 for 11 yards (33-M.Hyde; 29-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.79 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.58 EP