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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 7

Washington Commanders 2 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model