Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 86

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 5

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to WAS 41, Center-59-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at GB 49 for 10 yards (30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on WAS-40-C.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 46.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model