Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(10:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond to KC 30 for 13 yards (50-A.Dent).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model