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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Saturday 2016-01-09 · 16:35 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

KC
46.3%
HOU
53.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.226 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.201 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 21
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
Husain Abdullah S Questionable Concussion
Dee Ford LB Questionable Concussion
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Thumb
Jeff Allen G Probable Ankle
Chris Conley WR Probable Thumb
Justin Houston LB Probable Knee
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Jeremy Maclin WR Probable Hip
Jah Reid T Probable Knee
Spencer Ware RB Probable Rib

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Foot
A.J. Bouye CB Probable Knee
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Quintin Demps S Probable Shoulder
Ryan Griffin TE Probable Achilles
DeAndre Hopkins WR Probable Hand
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Ben Jones C Probable Knee
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Cecil Shorts WR Probable Hamstring
John Simon LB Probable Chest
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Probable Calf
Alfred Blue RB Probable Calf
Kevin Johnson CB Probable Foot
Shane Lechler P Probable left Hamstring
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow
Nate Washington WR Probable Hip
J.J. Watt DE Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
HOU 0

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD KC 8-N.Novak kicks 71 yards from HOU 35 to KC -6. 34-K.Davis for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 12:56 FG KC (12:56) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – HOU 0
  • Q2 07:11 FG KC (7:11) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – HOU 0
  • Q3 04:39 TD KC (4:39) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-W.Mercilus]. KC 19 – HOU 0
  • Q4 15:00 TD KC (15:00) 32-S.Ware right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – HOU 0
  • Q4 04:04 FG KC (4:04) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 30 – HOU 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond to HOU 46 for 31 yards (21-D.Morris). PENALTY on KC-30-J.Fleming, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 23.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to HOU 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 75%

    (12:56) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond to KC 30 for 13 yards (50-A.Dent).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 77%

    (7:11) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:14) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to HOU 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 24%

    (:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to HOU 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 54%

    (10:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:22) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond pushed ob at HOU 48 for 20 yards (28-A.Blue). PENALTY on KC-34-K.Davis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 39.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 29 for -5 yards (97-A.Bailey). FUMBLES (97-A.Bailey), and recovers at KC 29. 7-B.Hoyer to KC 29 for no gain (55-D.Ford).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (4:04) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to KC 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond to HOU 49 for 14 yards (52-B.Peters; 40-K.Drummond).