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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to HOU 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model