4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to HOU 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.20 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP