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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 40

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model