Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 80

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond pushed ob at HOU 48 for 20 yards (28-A.Blue). PENALTY on KC-34-K.Davis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model