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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to KC 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond to HOU 49 for 14 yards (52-B.Peters; 40-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model