4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to HOU 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model