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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 31

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP