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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model