4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

10-6 HC Mike McCarthy
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

13-3 HC Bruce Arians
Saturday 2016-01-16 · 20:15 ET University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

GB
23.2%
ARI
76.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.277 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.067 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than GB
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 20 13–27
–
ARI 28 21–35
Projected margin: ARI by 8 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

GB

Davante Adams WR Out Knee
Andrew Quarless TE Out Knee
Quinten Rollins CB Questionable Quadricep
Sam Shields CB Questionable Concussion
David Bakhtiari T Probable Ankle
Jayrone Elliott LB Probable Quadricep
Datone Jones DE Probable Neck
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Rib
Mike Neal LB Probable Hip
Justin Perillo TE Probable Hamstring
Mike Daniels DT Probable Hamstring
T.J. Lang G Probable Calf
Richard Rodgers TE Probable Hip
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

ARI

Josh Mauro DT Questionable Calf
Frostee Rucker DT Questionable Ankle
Markus Golden LB Probable Knee
Mike Iupati G Probable Shoulder
Carson Palmer QB Probable right Finger

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 20
–
ARI 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:58 TD ARI (6:58) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 15-M.Floyd for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 11:27 FG GB (11:27) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 3 – ARI 7
  • Q2 01:01 FG GB (1:01) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 6 – ARI 7
  • Q3 10:25 TD GB (10:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 83-J.Janis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – ARI 7
  • Q3 05:09 FG ARI (5:09) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. GB 13 – ARI 10
  • Q4 03:50 TD ARI (3:50) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 15-M.Floyd for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald. Deflected by 23-D.Randall. GB 13 – ARI 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG ARI (2:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. GB 13 – ARI 20
  • Q4 00:05 TD GB (:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-J.Janis for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Golden]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 19 – ARI 20
  • Q5 14:00 TD ARI (14:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – ARI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:03) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to GB 27, Center-82-M.Leach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 47 for 20 yards (30-S.Taylor). PENALTY on GB-51-N.Palmer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:19) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to ARI 46, Center-59-R.Lovato. 21-P.Peterson to GB 42 for 12 yards (39-D.Goodson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (9:02) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to GB 8 for 2 yards (52-C.Matthews).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 35 yards to ARI 34, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:04) 2-D.Butler punts 55 yards to GB 5, Center-82-M.Leach, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (11:27) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:01) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to GB 13, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 84-J.Abbrederis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (1:01) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (5:09) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 34 yards to ARI 31, Center-59-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to ARI 20, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (2:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 96 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.82 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-J.Janis to ARI 36 for 60 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

    See the full breakdown →