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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to GB 13, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 84-J.Abbrederis.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP