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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model