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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to ARI 46, Center-59-R.Lovato. 21-P.Peterson to GB 42 for 12 yards (39-D.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 41, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model