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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model