Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(2:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 34 yards to ARI 31, Center-59-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model