Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(2:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model