Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 96

Green Bay Packers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-J.Janis to ARI 36 for 60 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.49 EP
75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 96, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.82 EP