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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to GB 8 for 2 yards (52-C.Matthews).

The Three Options

GO +3.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.46 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.85 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.10 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model