Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(5:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 35 yards to ARI 34, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.96 EP
53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model