Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

(4:04) 2-D.Butler punts 55 yards to GB 5, Center-82-M.Leach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.73 EP
52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model