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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 43

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton pushed ob at PIT 15 for 7 yards (26-D.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model