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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-01-17 · 16:40 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT
54.0%
DEN
46.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.092 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.172 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Peyton Manning in place of Brock Osweiler)
  • PIT offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN on 6 more days rest than PIT
  • PIT defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

PIT

Antonio Brown WR Out Concussion
DeAngelo Williams RB Out Foot
Ben Roethlisberger QB Questionable right Shoulder
Will Johnson RB Questionable Hamstring
Will Allen S Probable Not Injury Related
Robert Golden S Probable Shoulder
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Cameron Heyward DE Probable Back
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Knee
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Not Injury Related
Vince Williams LB Probable Hamstring

DEN

Brock Osweiler QB Questionable Knee
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Todd Davis LB Probable Shoulder
Max Garcia G Probable Groin
Chris Harris CB Probable Shoulder
Malik Jackson DE Probable Illness
Peyton Manning QB Probable Foot
Brandon Marshall LB Probable Ankle
Von Miller LB Probable Illness
Robert Myers G Probable Illness
Darian Stewart S Probable Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Probable Ankle
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Knee
Juwan Thompson RB Probable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 16
–
DEN 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 FG DEN (11:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 03:45 FG DEN (3:45) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 01:26 TD PIT (1:26) 33-F.Toussaint right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – DEN 6
  • Q2 10:24 FG PIT (10:24) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 10 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG DEN (:05) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 10 – DEN 9
  • Q3 09:36 FG PIT (9:36) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – DEN 9
  • Q3 02:50 FG DEN (2:50) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 13 – DEN 12
  • Q4 03:04 TD DEN (3:04) (No Huddle) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – DEN 18
  • Q4 00:57 FG DEN (:57) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 13 – DEN 23
  • Q4 00:24 FG PIT (:24) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 16 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:37) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to DEN 28, Center-60-G.Warren. 31-O.Bolden pushed ob at PIT 30 for 42 yards (29-S.Thomas; 57-T.Garvin).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%

    (11:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%

    (8:02) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Wheaton (21-A.Talib).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to PIT 3, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster. DEN-31-O.Bolden was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:12) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to PIT 31, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 85%

    (3:45) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 39%

    (14:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton pushed ob at PIT 15 for 7 yards (26-D.Stewart).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 82%

    (10:24) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to PIT 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton pushed ob at PIT 38 for 12 yards (46-A.Brewer).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:54) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to DEN 41, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%

    (5:16) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 10-E.Sanders (23-M.Mitchell).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to DEN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%

    (:05) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton to PIT 21 for 1 yard (36-K.Webster).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (9:36) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:07) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 11, ball out of bounds at PIT 6.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:00) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (2:50) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%

    (11:41) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton MUFFS catch, recovered by PIT-31-R.Cockrell at PIT 0. Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 30 for -13 yards (94-D.Ware).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 78%

    (:57) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.