4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to DEN 28, Center-60-G.Warren. 31-O.Bolden pushed ob at PIT 30 for 42 yards (29-S.Thomas; 57-T.Garvin).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model