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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 74

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to PIT 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton pushed ob at PIT 38 for 12 yards (46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model