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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to DEN 41, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model