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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 33

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model