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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 65

Denver Broncos 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton to PIT 21 for 1 yard (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model