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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model