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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 10

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.52 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP