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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 23

Denver Broncos 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.15 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model