Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 46

Denver Broncos 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton MUFFS catch, recovered by PIT-31-R.Cockrell at PIT 0. Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.35 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.12 EP

KICK -1.75 EP

31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
69% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model