4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 30 for -13 yards (94-D.Ware).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model