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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 27

Denver Broncos 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(:57) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model