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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Wheaton (21-A.Talib).

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.60 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model