Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(11:57) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to ARI 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 21 for 2 yards (14-J.Webb).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model