4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-01-24 · 18:40 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

ARI
37.2%
CAR
62.8%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Cam Newton (CAR) +0.239 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.256 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
CAR 29
Projected margin: CAR by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

ARI

Justin Bethel CB Probable Ankle
John Brown WR Probable Shoulder
Markus Golden LB Probable Knee
David Johnson RB Probable Toe
Josh Mauro DT Probable Calf
Carson Palmer QB Probable right Finger
Frostee Rucker DT Probable Ankle

CAR

Jared Allen DE Out Foot
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Foot
Jonathan Stewart RB Probable Ankle
Fozzy Whittaker RB Probable Ankle
Charles Johnson DE Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 15
–
CAR 49

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 FG CAR (9:35) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. ARI 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 04:45 TD CAR (4:45) (Shotgun) 19-T.Ginn left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was an end around by Ted Ginn Jr. ARI 0 – CAR 9
  • Q1 01:03 TD CAR (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-C.Brown for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CAR 16
  • Q2 05:46 TD ARI (5:46) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CAR 17
  • Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Daryl Williams and Fernando Velasco reports as eligible ARI 7 – CAR 23
  • Q3 07:53 FG CAR (7:53) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. ARI 7 – CAR 27
  • Q3 02:14 TD CAR (2:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – CAR 33
  • Q4 14:22 TD ARI (14:22) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 85-D.Fells for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CAR 34
  • Q4 05:31 TD CAR (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-T.Jefferson]. Daryl Williams reports as eligible ARI 15 – CAR 40
  • Q4 05:20 TD CAR (5:20) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle intended for 12-Jo.Brown INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at ARI 22. 59-L.Kuechly for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 15 – CAR 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:39) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to CAR 28, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for 6 yards (59-A.Fua).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 80%

    (9:35) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:01) 2-D.Butler punts 52 yards to CAR 19, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-T.Ginn to ARI 49 for 32 yards (2-D.Butler).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:56) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to CAR 12, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:57) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to ARI 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 21 for 2 yards (14-J.Webb).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:54) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to ARI 39, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-21-T.Williams at ARI 46. 21-T.Williams to ARI 46 for no gain (22-T.Jefferson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (7:53) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:27) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 77%

    (14:55) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to CAR 21 for 8 yards (99-K.Short).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:06) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to ARI 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 15-M.Floyd to ARI 39 for 12 yards (54-S.Thompson; 56-A.Klein).