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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to ARI 39, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-21-T.Williams at ARI 46. 21-T.Williams to ARI 46 for no gain (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model