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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Carolina Panthers 34

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to CAR 21 for 8 yards (99-K.Short).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model