4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 27

Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.61 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.06 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.81 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP