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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Carolina Panthers 49

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 15-M.Floyd to ARI 39 for 12 yards (54-S.Thompson; 56-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP