Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

(8:01) 2-D.Butler punts 52 yards to CAR 19, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-T.Ginn to ARI 49 for 32 yards (2-D.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.27 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model